Arsenal 26/27
The current first-choice XI — real players, real squad. The bench shows who's available now. In Edit mode tap any player to swap them with anyone from the full target pool — including transfers — for hypothetical testing. The XI resets to the real squad on reload.
A composite rating of the eleven on the pitch right now — built from each player's quality and how naturally they fit the role. Swap players in Edit mode and watch it move. Out-of-position players are penalised; world-class additions lift it.
Tiered by natural / most-played position — dashed C = off-position cover. In Edit mode, tap a tier circle to cycle it, or tap the tags to set New / Youth / Pillar / Loan.
The projected senior squad once the window closes — by the numbers. 24 players across the four lines, built deliberately young. Figures update from the squad model; home-grown status is tracked against both Premier League and UEFA rules.
What the ten readouts below add up to. Reads the live squad and the needs brain — it moves as you work the window.
Every position crossed with age band. Each cell shows how many senior players you have there. The colour flags the real risk clubs miss — not just where you're thin, but where you're strong-but-aging with no young succession behind it. Reflects the live squad (secured signings in, confirmed sales out).
How the squad spreads across the age bands — the bulge sits in the prime years, with a real youth base beneath it. Line averages below.
Senior bodies per line after the window — depth, not just a first XI.
How much of the projected squad is new this summer.
Both PL and UEFA need 8 home-grown in 25 \u2014 but UEFA also demands 4 club-trained and counts eligibility differently. The academy does the heavy lifting.
Annual wage cost against share of minutes played. Bottom-right is the sweet spot — high availability, sensible cost. Top-left is where you pause: paying a lot for limited minutes.
Games missed last season — the fitness picture the audit kept flagging. The longer the bar, the bigger the question mark.
When the key deals expire — and who's on the two-year watch. Renewals are the quiet half of a good window.
14 senior players at the 2026 WC — affects pre-season planning and early window availability.
How many players will be in their prime window (23–27) by season — shows whether the squad gets better or older over the next three years.
Predicted incomings — by 1 Sep
Predicted outgoings
Premier League
Still the call, but with a caveat that didn't exist before: Arsenal won 68% of matches with Saliba and 50% without him. Four to five months of that is roughly a third of the season, and the opening run is Coventry, Villa away and Chelsea at home.
Champions League
Unchanged. Going further still hinges on the elite left-sided forward that fixes the fine-margins finishing which turned the final against PSG — Tzolis at £34m is squad depth, not that player.
Where the money actually goes. This is the cash story of the window — the spend, what sales claw back, and how it splits by position. Edit fees on The Window tab and these update too.
Gross outlay on signings, minus what the sales recoup, equals the figure that hits the books.
Active & secured incomings, grouped by the slot they fill — where the budget is being pointed.
The headline fees, ranked.
Weekly wages arriving vs leaving — the net change to the bill.
PSR doesn't count a fee all at once — it's spread over the contract. A £150m signing on a 5-year deal is £30m a year on the accounts. This is the annual amortisation charge, which is what the rules actually test.
A £150m target that's 25% likely isn't £150m of spend — it's £37m of expected outlay. This weights every active target's fee by how likely the deal is, the way a sporting director actually models a budget. Secured deals count in full; longer shots count for a fraction.
Drag the headline winger fee and watch net spend and the annual book cost move. The rest of the window is held constant.
The window read as a sporting director would — every line graded by how badly it needs work and how close the fix is. This is the thread that ties the squad, the targets and the money together: the why behind each move.
Every position plotted by how urgent against how solved. The red corner — high need, low progress — is where the window is won or lost. Tap a card below to jump to the options.
From 2026/27 the Premier League replaces PSR with the Squad Cost Ratio (SCR), while UEFA's FSR already binds clubs in Europe. Both cap squad spending as a share of revenue. The calculator below is live — change any number and watch Arsenal's ratio move.
Squad Cost Ratio
From 2026/27, squad costs — player & coach wages, transfer amortisation and agent fees — must stay within 85% of football revenue plus net player-sale profit. A buffer up to 115% is allowed but carries a levy; breaching that brings points deductions.
Financial Sustainability
Any club in Europe faces the stricter limit: squad costs within 70% of revenue (red threshold 100%), plus a €60m loss cap over three years. Chelsea (€11m) and Villa (€6m) were fined last season for breaching the 70% mark.
Arsenal · 2024/25 audited accounts Year ending May 2025 · Published Feb 2026 · Companies House
Projected 2026/27 wage bill · post-window (estimates · £k/week)
Top earners · current squad (public estimates · £k/week · leaving players shown struck-through)
Live squad-cost-ratio calculator
UEFA
PL
The SCR above is a single-season ratio. Separately, clubs are judged on a three-year cumulative basis: the Premier League's £105m allowable loss and UEFA's €60m (~£50m) loss cap. This is where Arsenal's run of near-breakeven accounts pays off.
Projects squad-cost compliance across the full assessment window. Signings amortise over 5 years, sales bank as profit in year one, wages and revenue grow on the assumptions below. Everything is driven live by The Window; move the sliders to stress-test.
Actuals moderating: +14.6% (24/25) → +11.4% (25/26) · ~8%/yr long-run.
Arsenal's £691m revenue (PL record) grew 12% year-on-year, keeping the wage bill at a lean 50% of turnover even as wages rose to £347m. Near-breakeven at £1.4m loss is a significant achievement at this squad quality level. Chelsea lost ~£200m. Man Utd lost ~£115m.
The Arsenal Supporters Trust projects a ~£100m loss for 2025/26 (the title season): higher wages, reduced player trading profit, and expanded UCL amortisation. This is the price of winning. It's manageable inside PSR limits, but it narrows the margin. Continued UCL revenue is critical — dropping out changes the picture fast.
£153m of outgoing fees this window (White, Martinelli, Jesus, Trossard, Nørgaard, Vieira, Nelson, Kepa) creates headroom. Every £50m of player-sale profit adds ~6 percentage points of SCR headroom — which is why selling fringe players before adding premium targets is structurally sound.
How Arsenal's model stacks up against the other English heavyweights — on the numbers and the way they operate. Figures are from the latest available accounts; Arsenal's 2025/26 is a Premier League record.
Pick up to three contested targets and see how Berta's model would weigh them — fee efficiency, openness to the move, pedigree, risk and versatility, side by side. Model scores, not official ratings — built from everything reported this window.
Every dated, verifiable development from this window's research — tagged by how solid the sourcing is. Confirmed = named top-tier source (Romano/Ornstein-level or official). Reported = credible single source. Debunked = claimed, then knocked down within hours.
The Engine — a joint-scenario simulator over the whole window. The board already knows each deal's individual probability (the same dealProb the probability bars use). What it cannot see alone is the joint structure: deals that fund, block, gate and compete with each other. The Engine encodes that structure as sourced edges, runs seeded Monte Carlo over every deal at once, and reports what falls out — true landing odds, induced correlations, financial percentile bands, and registration risk. Every edge shows its source. Every run is reproducible from its seed.